On 22 October 2026 the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) holds its next rate-setting meeting. After months at 37%, analysts increasingly expect the first cut. At the same time, the latest data show Turkish home sales falling and prices declining in real terms for the ninth month in a row.
What does that mean if you are looking at an apartment or villa in Alanya? Here are the numbers — and why this is an unusual buyer's market.
At a glance
- The CBRT policy rate is 37%. The next decision is due on 22 October 2026 at 14:00 Turkish time.
- QNB's analysts forecast a first cut in October and 2 percentage points of cuts by year-end, to 35%.
- Turkish home sales in August fell 14.7% year on year; resales fell 19.4%.
- Sales to foreigners in January–August totalled 13,141, down 6.3% on 2025.
- Turkish house prices rose 23% in lira over the year but fell 6.5% in real terms.
- In Alanya, prices rose 18–22% in lira over the year — and were roughly flat in dollars.
Why the central bank rate matters for property
The policy rate sets the cost of money in Turkey, and it moves the housing market through three channels.
1. Mortgages. Lira mortgages currently cost around 2.9% a month — over 40% a year. At that level few people borrow, which holds back Turkish buyers. Each rate cut gradually makes mortgages cheaper and brings local buyers back.
2. Deposits. High rates make lira savings accounts attractive. When rates fall, Turks traditionally move savings into "hard" assets — foreign currency, gold and property.
3. The lira. Rate cuts can weaken the lira. For buyers paying in pounds, euros or dollars, the same flat then costs less.
Most foreigners buy in Turkey with their own funds rather than a Turkish mortgage, so rates affect them indirectly — through local demand and the exchange rate.
What is happening in the market now
Sales are falling
According to TurkStat (TÜİK), Turkey sold 127,410 homes in August 2026, 14.7% fewer than a year earlier. Resales fell hardest, down 19.4%; new-build sales fell 4.5%.
The only growing segment was mortgage-financed sales (+7.2%) — an early sign that demand will return through mortgages once borrowing gets cheaper.
Foreign buyers are more cautious
Foreigners bought 1,938 homes in August — the same as a year earlier — but purchases over the first eight months of 2026 were down 6.3%. Russian (343 in August), Ukrainian (147) and Iranian (140) buyers lead.
Antalya remains Turkey's second-largest market for foreign buyers after Istanbul, with 599 sales in August, 226 of them to Russian citizens. Much of this demand is in Alanya.
The Turkish press increasingly describes foreign sales as being at a six-year low, citing the USD 200,000 threshold for property-based residence permits, closed neighbourhoods and waning interest in citizenship by investment.
Prices: up in lira, down in real terms
The CBRT house price index rose 23% in lira in the year to August 2026 but fell 6.5% after inflation — the ninth straight month of real-terms decline.
Alanya follows the same pattern: the average asking price per square metre rose 18% (Emlakjet), or 22% by Endeksa's valuation. But the lira lost almost 18% against the dollar over the same period, so in dollar terms Alanya prices were essentially flat. District detail is in Alanya property prices 2026.
Why this is a buyer's market
Several factors have lined up at once:
- Fewer sales, plenty of supply. Alanya has around 2,900 apartments listed for sale, more than 600 in Mahmutlar alone.
- Sellers will negotiate. Especially on resales, where sales fell hardest. A 5–10% discount on the asking price is now normal rather than exceptional.
- Prices are flat in hard currency. For buyers with pounds, euros or dollars, homes are not getting more expensive — and are cheaper in real terms.
- It is low season. From October to March there are fewer holiday buyers, and owners are more flexible.
What could change after a rate cut
Nobody can predict the CBRT's decision or the market's reaction with certainty, but recent years suggest two scenarios.
If rates are cut in October and keep falling:
- mortgages get cheaper and local buyers return, first in the affordable segment;
- some savings move from deposits into property;
- resales recover first, then new-builds;
- room for negotiation shrinks and lira prices rise faster.
If the CBRT pauses:
- today's conditions continue for a few more months: few sales, flexible sellers;
- dollar prices stay roughly where they are.
Either way, the window for buyers is probably wider now than it will be in six to twelve months. And from 1 January 2027, property tax values, registration charges and official fees all rise — see our article on property taxes in Turkey in 2027.
Buy now or wait?
| Your situation | Our view |
|---|---|
| Buying to live in, paying in foreign currency | Good timing: stable hard-currency prices, wide choice, room to negotiate |
| Buying for a residence permit (USD 200,000+) | Good timing: less competition for the best premium properties |
| Investing for long-term rental | Good timing: rents rose 26% in a year, yields around 5% |
| Relying on a Turkish mortgage | Worth waiting for lower rates, but start watching the market now |
| Trying to buy at the very bottom | Impossible to time; hard-currency prices are already flat |
This is not investment advice — the right decision depends on your goals, budget and timeframe.
How to make the most of a buyer's market
- Negotiate. Know the district's price per square metre and compare. Use time on market, condition, floor and view as arguments.
- Look at resales. Sellers there are the most flexible, and the properties are ready to live in or let.
- Check liquidity. Buy where homes are easy to rent and resell: Oba, Kestel, Mahmutlar, the centre and Cleopatra.
- Do not skimp on checks. Falling markets also bring problem properties to sale — no occupancy permit, unpaid site fees, encumbrances.
- Plan to complete before year-end if you want 2026 fees and tax values.
We handle purchases from shortlist to title deed, negotiate on price and check every property. See Property search and purchase support and our Alanya property catalogue. Selling? We will help you price it right for today's market: Sell your property.
FAQ
When will Turkey's central bank decide on rates? The next meeting is on 22 October 2026, with the decision announced at 14:00 Turkish time. The policy rate is currently 37%.
Will Turkey cut interest rates in October 2026? Some analysts, including QNB, expect a first cut in October and 2 percentage points of cuts by year-end. The decision depends on inflation, which fell below 30% in September for the first time since 2021.
How will a rate cut affect property prices in Turkey? Rate cuts usually make mortgages cheaper and bring local buyers back, increasing demand. Over time that speeds up lira price growth and reduces room for negotiation.
Are property prices falling in Alanya? Not in lira — they rose 18–22% over the year. In dollars prices were roughly flat, and adjusted for inflation Turkish homes have been getting cheaper for nine months.
Is now a good time to buy in Alanya? For buyers with foreign currency, yes: few sales, wide choice, negotiable sellers and stable dollar prices. If you need a Turkish mortgage, it may be worth waiting for rates to fall.
Can foreigners get a mortgage in Turkey? Some banks lend to foreigners, but conditions are strict and rates are high — about 2.9% a month. Most foreigners buy with their own funds.
Sources: CBRT rate and meeting date — QNB Invest, Politikam; August 2026 home sales — TurkStat (via Alomaliye); Antalya foreign sales — Yeni Alanya; August 2026 house price index — CBRT (via CNBC-e); mortgage rates — Haber Dijital (28.09–02.10.2026); Alanya prices — Emlakjet, Endeksa. This article is general information, not investment advice.
